17 April 2007

.. exceeding market expectations

One feature I have found to be an excellent precursor to substantial rises in the price of a stock is a stock market announcement that profits are likely to exceed market expectations. The stock usually rises immediatedly, sometimes then falling back, sometimes not, before, over a longer period, rising considerably. The effect seems to be stronger when the "exceed" is preceded by words such as significantly or comfortably. It is also helped if the company is on a lowish rating, taking the debt/cash position into account. This morning Victoria Carpets (VCP) made such an announcement (see here) and I have bought some shares, despite having to pay more than 10% above yesterday's closing price.

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